A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
